KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans.
— Our overall best guess at the net change in the House — a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s — remains unchanged.
— We don’t see a huge impact, so far, from the Supreme Court’s landmark abortion opinion.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes
|Member/District||Old Rating||New Rating|
|CO-7 Open (Perlmutter, D)||Likely Democratic||Leans Democratic|
|CO-8 Open (No inc.)||Toss-up||Leans Republican|
|Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5)||Likely Democratic||Leans Democratic|
|Carlos Giménez (R, FL-28)||Likely Republican||Safe Republican|
|FL-4 Open (No inc.)||Likely Republican||Safe Republican|
|FL-7 Open (Murphy, D)||Likely Republican||Safe Republican|
|Sanford Bishop (D, GA-2)||Leans Democratic||Likely Democratic|
|Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1)||Leans Democratic||Toss-up|
|NC-13 Open (No inc.)||Toss-up||Leans Republican|
|Bryan Steil (R, WI-1)||Likely Republican||Safe Republican|
The race for the House
It has been roughly a month since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overruled past Supreme Court decisions recognizing a constitutional right to abortion.
The decision has perhaps made some difference in the electoral environment, although likely only at the margins.
House generic ballot polling, which is tracked by both the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight trackers, is a bit closer now than it was the day of the Dobbs decision, June 24. The former has moved from a Republican lead of about 3.5 points to a GOP lead of about 2, and the latter from a GOP lead of about 2.5 to just about half a point. Some individual surveys, such as recent ones from Fox News and CNN, have shown Democrats and Republicans expressing roughly equally high motivation to vote, although other polls show a clear GOP motivation edge: The Marquette University Law School poll — known for its Wisconsin polls but polling nationally in this survey — found an 18-point edge for Republicans on being “very enthusiastic” about voting (although the same survey only showed a narrow GOP edge on a question about certainty to vote). These motivation questions are important as we try to assess who will actually show up in November. …….