Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props
All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Sunday’s playoff games
Value Splash Brother: Much has been made about the Warriors and what now appears to be a set of three Splash siblings, but one sticks out as the value play Sunday both in the prop markets and across the DFS landscape. Jordan Poole averaged 21 points in the first round and hit the 50-40-90 shooting line in the process, but he played 14 fewer minutes than Klay Thompson in Game 5 as Golden State started its “death lineup.”
1 Related
The clear edge in playing time for Thompson, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. His 3-point rate (the percentage of shot attempts that came from downtown) was up to 51.7% this season from last regular season’s 42.7%. In the first-round win over the Nuggets, Thompson’s rate was 56.5%. Obviously, an increase like this is encouraging for one of the best shooters to play the game, but what about this matchup? Well, the Grizzlies allowed the Timberwolves (an average 3-point shooting team) to make 44-of-100 triples over the final three games of the series.
Only one team in the league hunts 3-pointers at a higher rate than Minnesota (38.2% of their points come via the 3) this season, and it’s Golden State (38.8%), so with Thompson getting healthier by the day, he’s a strong buy in Game 1 and until Memphis proves it can guard the perimeter.
Clarke cleaning the glass: One angle working in the Grizzlies’ favor for this series against the Warriors is the size, bounce and relentlessness that Brandon Clarke brings off the pine. Clarke became an essential part of the Memphis playoff rotation against Minnesota, averaging 18.3 points and 9.8 rebounds during the final four games of the series.
Clarke led Memphis with 17.8 rebounding chances per game in the series, something that could play out again in the second round. Speaking to Clarke’s value in DFS lineups and for prop bets on Sunday, it’s helpful to note he averaged 25.5 minutes in two matchups with Golden State during the regular season, tied for his highest clip against any opponent.
Making up for Middleton: No single player on the Milwaukee roster can make up for the production and play Khris Middleton brings to the floor. Yet with the All-Star wing being unlikely to play in this series with Boston due to a knee injury, it’s critical to evaluate how the …….
Source: https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/33831552/2022-nba-playoffs-betting-tips-sunday-game-1-matchups