If you’re winning money in any fantasy or NFL endeavor this late in the season, congrats. I’ve got a couple finals matchups but it’s impossible to have predicted how these last few weeks would go.
Week 18 is a new thing — Week 17 actually matters and no one is sitting anyone. There’s a little bit of “bowl game” factor hitting for bad teams at this point, so be careful about betting on ‘dogs this weekend if they don’t care at all.
Lot of big spreads and a lot of inactive situations to work through. Let’s try and figure it out.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Week 17 Picks
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
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This is a very difficult spot for both teams in terms of handicapping this game. The Bills are coming off a massive win against the Patriots and are probably due for a letdown. The Falcons are motivated because — despite their -122 point differential — they are somehow still in the playoff race. The Bills bash bad teams (the Falcons are a bad team) and the Falcons get bashed by good teams (the Bills are a good team). But the line is just too much — Buffalo’s pass defense has not been bad since losing Tre’Davious White but it’s hard to tell given the games (The Wind Game, the Panthers, MacSplosion). Ultimately I just think the Falcons keep it within 14 points but I don’t feel comfortable with it. If Josh Allen wants to name his number here, he can.
The pick: Bills 28, Falcons 14
Props, Best Bets: Nada
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
New England Patriots
On the other hand, I’m fine laying a ton of points with Bill Belichick against a horrendous team in a suddenly must-win spot. The Patriots can flex on teams like the Jaguars because 1) Jacksonville has a rookie quarterback (historically bad against Belichick), 2) Mac Jones gets better looks against a bad pass defense, 3) the Pats will score on defense and 4) the Jaguars are terrible. They won’t cover by more than a few points but it won’t be close. Take the over on Nick Folk …….